Orron Energy Ab · OMXSTO:ORRON
Orron Energy Ab — Lundin Petroleum — Investor Day (February 2011)
60 slides from Orron Energy Ab's investor day presentation, Feb 1, 2011
Slide 1: Capital Market Day
Lundin Petroleum Capital Market Day Stockholm, 1st February 2011
Slide 2: Lundin Petroleum Capital Market Day notes
Lundin Petroleum Capital Market Day notes
Slide 3: Disclaimer and Agenda
February 2011 2 Disclaimer DISCLAIMER Certain statements made in this presentation involve a number of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected. Certain statements relating to Lundin Petroleum’s business and operations are based on management’
Slide 4: Introduction: 2010 - A Defining Year
Lundin Petroleum Capital Market Day 4 Introduction Capital Market Day WF11207 February 2011 notes 5 2010 - A Defining Year for Lundin Petroleum Value Crystallisation Spin-off of UK business into Enquest Spin-off of shareholding in Etrion Sale of non-core Indonesia production assets Exploration succe
Slide 5: 2011 - Continued Growth; Asset Overview
February 2011 6 2011 - Continued Growth Exploration focus to continue 21 wells. Budget ~USD 300 million 5 well appraisal and exploration programme in the Greater Luno Area Drilling to commence in the Barents Sea 5 exploration wells in Malaysia Development activity to increase Luno and Nemo Plan of D
Slide 6: 2010 Financial Performance
Lundin Petroleum Capital Market Day 8 2010 Financial Performance Capital Market Day WF11207 February 2011 notes 9 2010 Forecast Cash Margin Netback [USD/boe] Excluding UK Forecast CMD 2010 Jan 10 Brent oil price 79.50 60.00 Revenue 70.95 51.45 Cost of operations -8.65 -10.05 Tariffs -1.55 -1.10 Prod
Slide 7: 2010 Forecast Cost of Operations
February 2011 10 2010 Forecast Cost of Operations Excluding UK 2010 CMD 73.00 2010 Forecast 40 40 38.90 30 30 24.35 USD/boe USD/boe 20 20 17.75 17.45 16.60 14.05 11.40 10 10 10.05 8.65 8.65 6.95 5.05 3.15 0 0 France Netherlands Indonesia Tunisia Norway Russia LUPE Average WF11208 p6 01.11 notes 11 2
Slide 8: 2010 Forecast Exploration Costs
Lundin Petroleum Capital Market Day 12 2010 Forecast Exploration Costs Q4 2010 2010 Q4 2010 Forecast Forecast Forecast after Tax MUSD MUSD MUSD Norway: PL476 Frusalen, PL359 Luno High, 95 61 13 PL400 Barchan, PL409 Norall Vietnam: 2 wells 32 0 0 Other 1 0 0 Exploration Costs 128 61 13 WF11208 p7 01.
Slide 9: 2010 Forecast Taxation
February 2011 14 2010 Forecast Taxation Excluding UK USD/boe Current tax charge 6.10 Deferred tax charge 16.50 22.60 WF11208 p10 01.11 notes 15 Effective Forecast Tax Rate Reconciliation Excluding UK 2010 effective tax rate: 66% Gain on sale of Etrion Gain on sale of Salawatis 2010 effective tax rat
Slide 10: 2010 Forecast EBITDA
Lundin Petroleum Capital Market Day 16 2010 Forecast EBITDA [USD/boe] Excluding UK 2010 Forecast Cash Margin Netback 56.90 General & Administrative -3.70* EBITDA 53.20 * Includes USD/boe 1.05 of Etrion G&A WF11208 p15 01.11 notes 17 2010 Forecast Other Items Spin-off of UK into EnQuest (Q2) UK busin
Slide 11: Liquidity
February 2011 18 Liquidity MUSD Total Credit Facility 850 Borrowing Base Loan Drawn @ 31 December 2010 459 Cash Balances @ 31 December 2010 49 Net Debt Position @ 31 December 2010 410 WF11209 p12 01.11 notes 19 2010 Forecast Cash Flow / Liquidity Includes UK for Q1 10 only OPERATING +100 CASH FLOW M
Slide 12: Production, Development and Resources
Lundin Petroleum Capital Market Day 20 Production, Development and Resources Capital Market Day WF11207 February 2011 notes 21 Proven & Probable Reserves Gas 16% Tunisia Russia 0.5 16.7 Oil 84% Alvheim France PSC 2% 29.4 22.3 Tax Royalty 98% Volund Indonesia 13.2 4.3 Nemo Netherlands 10.2 3.6 Total
Slide 13: Reserves Growth
February 2011 22 Reserves Growth 383% reserves increase in Norway No decline in French reserves 200 200 150 150 Russia MMboe 100 100 Norway Tunisia Netherlands Indonesia 50 50 France 0 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 (end of year) WF11210 p2 01.11 Excludes divested assets notes 23 Res
Slide 14: Contingent Resources
Lundin Petroleum Capital Market Day 24 Contingent Resources Total 259.2 MMboe Gas 10% Oil 90% Russia 110.1 Avaldsnes 80.1 Norway 139.9 Apollo 17.5 Krabbe Others 9.8 32.5 France 7.3 Indonesia 1.9 WF11210 p4 01.11 End year 2010 notes 25 Historic Contingent Resources 300 300 250 250 200 200 Russia 150
Slide 15: 2011 Development Work Programme and Budget
February 2011 26 2011 Development Work Programme and Budget RUSSIA - Komi drilling NORWAY ALVHEIM FRANCE - Drill Phase 2 (3 wells) GRANDVILLE GAUPE - 7 development wells - Drill 2 producers - Facilities - Install subsea facilities - First oil Q4 VILLESENEUX - 1 development well LUNO/NEMO - PDO prepa
Slide 16: 2011 Production Guidance
Lundin Petroleum Capital Market Day 28 2011 Production Guidance France 11% 2011 production guidance 28,000 - 33,000 boepd Netherlands 8% Norway 2010 production excluding divested 64% Indonesia assets 28,400 boepd 3% Norway - production factors Minimum Volund contracted capacity is 25,000 bopd Russia
Slide 17: Norway Production - Alvheim Field
February 2011 30 Norway Production - Alvheim Field Lundin Petroleum 15% Marathon 65%, ConocoPhillips 20% Gross 2P reserves 196 MMboe 2010 Production at 12,900 boepd net - 8% above forecast Costs of operations USD 3.5/boe for 2010 Drilling Phase 2 EKAM 02 BOA 12 Three Phase 2 wells to be completed in
Slide 18: Norway Production - Volund Field
Lundin Petroleum Capital Market Day 32 Norway Production - Volund Field Volund Field Lundin Petroleum 35% Marathon 65% (operator) Injector Producers Gross 2P reserves 38 MMboe Strong production Q4 2010 gross production of 27,700 boepd Minimum contracted production capacity 25,000 bopd gross Operatin
Slide 19: Increase of Production
February 2011 34 Increase of Production Avaldsnes Apollo Luno Onstream Krabbe Onstream Marihone Nemo Onstream Onstream +100% Gaupe increase Onstream in production boepd 28-33,000 28,400 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Forecast (excluding divested interests) WF10925 p7 01.11 notes 35 Norway - New Devel
Slide 20: Greater Luno Area - Luno Field
Lundin Petroleum Capital Market Day 36 Greater Luno Area - Luno Field PL304 0 KM 20 Lundin Petroleum interest: 50% (operator) Oil Gas Wintershall 30%, RWE 20% PL546 PL501 Subsurface work completed Draupne Certified 2P reserves of 148 MMboe gross Plateau production forecast >60,000 boepd gross Luno F
Slide 21: Greater Luno Area - Luno Development
February 2011 38 Greater Luno Area - Luno Development Luno stand alone development concept Dry wellheads Oil export to Grane Flexibility regarding oil/gas export or offshore loading Gas export to Sleipner, Sage or Alvheim WF10766 p12 01.11 notes 39 Norway - Nemo Development Lundin Petroleum interest
Slide 22: Norway - Krabbe Development
Lundin Petroleum Capital Market Day 40 Norway - Krabbe Development Lundin Petroleum interest: 40% (operator) PL292 0 KM 10 Lundin Petroleum Operator Skeie 60% Lundin Petroleum Partner Subsurface development concept substantially completed NORWAY Contingent resources 24.5 MMboe gross 2 producers, 1 i
Slide 23: Norway - Production Growth; France - Growth Potential
February 2011 42 Norway - Production Growth Avaldsnes Apollo 30,000 boepd Luno Krabbe Marihøne Nemo Volund Gaupe 15,000 boepd Alvheim 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 WF10890 p1 01.11 notes 43 France - Growth Potential Reims Plivot La Motte Noire Pays du Vert-la-Gravelle Saul
Slide 24: France - Contingent Resources
Lundin Petroleum Capital Market Day 44 France – Contingent Resources Paris Basin (4.8 MMboe net) Re-development existing fields Infill Villeperdue Grandville additional development Aquitaine (2.6 MMboe net) Re-development Courbey field - Only 10% recovery factor Multi Frac technology Apply shale oil
Slide 25: France, Paris Basin - Shale Oil Potential
February 2011 46 France, Paris Basin - Shale Oil Potential Licences Others 0 10 KM 40 Lundin Toreador Vermillion REP Other Urban areas Lotharingian S Lundin application Toreador applications Vermillion REP applications Wells chosen for Troyes Main cities AISNE hale GRP_1 Shale Oil Study Schist Est C
Slide 26: Russia - Lagansky Exploration
Lundin Petroleum Capital Market Day 48 Russia - Lagansky Exploration Exploration Prospects CK Morskaya Discovery LO YB N SK GA LA WF10896 p18 10.10 notes 49 Exploration Capital Market Day WF11207 February 2011 notes
Slide 27: Exploration Strategy
February 2011 50 Exploration Strategy Objectives Organic Growth Focus on building “core” exploration areas and countries Criteria Explore within proven petroleum systems Focus on under-explored areas Strategy Improved technical understanding and develop new plays Application of 3D seismic for explor
Slide 28: 2011 Budget Exploration Expenditure
Lundin Petroleum Capital Market Day 52 2011 Budget Exploration Expenditure MUSD Others,15 Congo Brazzaville, 15 Norway - Greater Alvheim Area, 35 Malaysia , 58 Norway - Greater Luno Area, 116 2011 Budget Drilling 216.0 Norway - Others, 34 Seismic/G&G 60.0 Other 29.0 Total 305.0 Norway - Barents Sea,
Slide 29: Norway - Leading the way
February 2011 54 Norway Leading the way Capital Market Day WF11207 February 2011 notes 55 Norway - Licence History Major position built through organic growth Norway number of licences 50 Includes 10 new awarded 45 APA 2010 licences 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 20 20 20 20 20
Slide 30: Norway - Exploration
Lundin Petroleum Capital Market Day 56 Norway - Exploration Greater Luno Area Barents Sea Area 3 Key Areas Barents Sea Area Greater Alvheim Area Greater Alvheim Area Greater Luno Area 2010 APA award WF10757b 03.10 notes 57 Norway Exploration - 2011 Exploration WP & Budget Greater Luno Area Total: MU
Slide 31: Lundin Norway Rig Capacity
February 2011 58 Lundin Norway Rig Capacity Transocean Winner Bredford Dolphin Transocean Arctic Rigs secured for all 2011 proposed drilling prospects WF11217 p2 01.11 notes 59 Norway - Proven Track Record Exploration capex 400 400 Development capex 300 300 MUSD MUSD 200 200 100 100 0 0 2004 2005 20
Slide 32: Norway - Significant Oil Discoveries
Lundin Petroleum Capital Market Day 60 Norway - Significant Oil Discoveries in the Last 5 Years Significant Oil discoveries on NSC 250 200 MMbbl 150 100 50 0 rm es e Go no p ær D r ia Gr e Gr g ak 8/1 ta 4" o o rud pn ter oll ee lin r Be n 0-1 be Lu db Ma gn alds td Ap au ev As int os Jor lia Av 60
Slide 33: Greater Luno Area
February 2011 62 Greater Luno Area Oil PL304 LundinPetroleum Operator LundinPetroleum Partner Gas 2010 APA Award Prospect Tellus Prospect Lead Prospective resources gross: 40 MMboe Drilling: ongoing PL546 PL501 Draupne Apollo discovery Torvastad Prospect Contingent resource range: 15-65 MMboe Aldous
Slide 34: Avaldsnes Discovery
Lundin Petroleum Capital Market Day 64 Avaldsnes Discovery PL546 (60%) PL501 (40%) Gross Contingent Resources on block 100-400 MMboe Geological model assumes no Jurassic reservoir in white area 16/2-6 (33m Jurassic Gross Thickness) Upside (33m Jurassic Gross Thickness) - Jurassic reservoir over whit
Slide 35: Avaldsnes 3D Perspective
February 2011 66 Norway Exploration - Avaldsnes 3D Perspective Luno Aldous Major North PL338 PL265 Aldous Major South 16/2-7(Avaldsnes 2nd appr.) 16/2-6 Avaldsnes Discovery Well 16/3-4 (Avaldsnes 1st appr.) PL501 WF11219 p3 01.11 notes 67 Greater Luno Area - Apollo Discovery 0 2.5 5 16/1-6 S Kilomet
Slide 36: Luno South Discovery
Lundin Petroleum Capital Market Day 68 Greater Luno Area - Luno South Discovery Well defined oil gradient Tellus 2 oil samples at 2 different levels with productivity of 300 and 700 bbls/d LUNO BASIN Undersaturated Luno-type oil Luno South Area 74 m core acquired Ability to identify areas of highly
Slide 37: Greater Luno Area - Further Exploration Potential
February 2011 70 Greater Luno Area - Further Exploration Potential Oil PL304 LundinPetroleum Operator LundinPetroleum Partner Gas 2010 APA Award Prospect Lead PL546 Tellus Prospect PL501 Draupne Torvastad Prospect Apollo discovery Aldous Major North Prospect Luno discovery Aldous Major South 16/2-6
Slide 38: Norway Exploration - Regional Barents Sea
Lundin Petroleum Capital Market Day 72 Norway Exploration - Regional Barents Sea New border (red line) Lundin core area WF11164 p1 11.10 notes 73 Barents Sea Shtokman Ververis Obelix Obesum Arenaria Nucula Lundin Licence area Goliat Oil & Gas Snøhvit Gas Oil Source:maps.grida.no WF10825 p3 01.10 not
Slide 39: Distribution of Oil Prone Source Rocks
February 2011 74 Distribution of Oil Prone Source Rocks WF11164 p2 11.10 notes 6915 6916 6914 75 Barents Sea - Drilling 6813 to6814Commence in 2011 SWEDEN 22°E 21°E 6309 Lead Prospect Oil field Gas field Rauto Numerous multi-stacked prospects matured in the portfolio Licenced Area (NPD) Lundin Norwa
Slide 40: Geological Play Types
Lundin Petroleum Capital Market Day 76 Geological Play Types PL533 PL492 PL438 PL490 NW Skalle SE Lavvo 7120/1-1R 7120/2-1 Pleistocene Shallow gas anomalies Shallow gas anomalies Early Jurassic 1000 ne e oce Pal Numerous structural and us ? Late Trias sic Paleo ce ne ceo stratigraphic play types Cre
Slide 41: Pulk/Salinas Prospect
February 2011 78 PL533 Pulk/Salinas Trace 2156 - Proposed well location Pulk/Salinas Proposed well location Pulk/Salinas Pulk (Salinas) well to be drilled towards the end of second half 2011 Pulk/Salinas Prospect - Top Knurr Fm. Depth Map A Seismic Inline 2222 across Pulk/Salinas Prospect Inl ine 22
Slide 42: Norway Exploration - Greater Alvheim Area
Lundin Petroleum Capital Market Day 80 Norway Exploration - Greater Alvheim Area LundinPetroleum Operator LundinPetroleum Partner PL088 PL088 2010 APA Award 9/14a-6 0 KM 4 Alvheim Deep 9/15a-1 PL088 bs Prospect PL036C P090 PL088 BS PL340 (15%) 9/15a-2 PEIK UK 24/6-1 PL036C PL088 Caterpillar prospect
Slide 43: Other Areas - PL519 Area
February 2011 82 Norway Exploration - Greater Alvheim Area “Brae” Fm Depth Structure and Isopach Top Brae Fm. Eqv. Depth Map (CI=50m) Top Brae Fm. Eqv. Isopach (CI=20m) EARB NORTH EARB NORTH EARB EARB PL505 PL505 EARB EARB SOUTH SOUTH Drilling Location 0 km 4 Unrisked gross WF10819 p6 11.10 0 km 4 r
Slide 44: South East Asia - Following the Successful Norway Strategy
Lundin Petroleum Capital Market Day 84 South East Asia Following the Successful Norway Strategy Capital Market Day WF11207 February 2011 notes 85 Exploration - South East Asia - Building a New Core Area THAILAND TOTAL CAMBODIA Exploration Licences: 10 VIETNAM Direct Joint Studies: 1 WI 33.3% WI 75%
Slide 45: Why SE Asia? Access to Resources
February 2011 86 Why SE Asia? Access to Resources Same Scale Greater Alvheim & Luno Core Areas Sabah Shelf Peik (088) 0 10 KM 40 Lundin Petroleum Licences Operated Non-operated Alvheim (036c,088bs,203) Hydrocarbon fields/discoveries SB303-B Oil Volund (150) Gas 505BS Condensate SB303-A 008 547S 0027
Slide 46: Malaysia 2011 Drilling Programme
Lundin Petroleum Capital Market Day 88 Malaysia 2011 Drilling Programme Bertam 1 Kemaman Harbor Belida 5 exploration wells to be drilled in 2011, total PM308B-A prospect Belida net unrisked potential resources 136 MMboe COS18%, P50 25 MMbbl Rhu 1A Sembilang Indonesia Unrisked PR (MMboe) Kuantan New
Slide 47: Sabah Tiga Papan Field - Development Opportunities
February 2011 90 Sabah Tiga Papan Field - Development Opportunities Tiga Papan field (SB307&308) Three appraisal wells with low flow rates (10’s -100’s b/d) in low Discovered in 1982 permeability calcareous sandstone 0 km 2 Appraised 1983-6 facies in same fault block 3D seismic acquired 2001 Opportu
Slide 48: 2011 Drilling Schedule
Lundin Petroleum Capital Market Day 92 2011 Drilling Schedule Capital Market Day WF11207 February 2011 notes 93 Targeted Prospective Resources – 2011 Drilling Schedule 2011 (1) (2) Country Licence - Prospect Operator LUPE% NURPR CoS% NRPR Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 1 Norway PL340 - Caterpillar Marathon 15.00 2 45
Slide 49: 2011 Financial Overview
February 2011 94 Exploration Activity to Continue Post 2011 Large prospect inventory on NCS has been developed and continues to evolve with new licences award Barents Sea exploration drilling 1 or 2 wells each year SE Asia exploration drilling from existing and new licences ~USD 300 Million annual e
Slide 50: 2011 Forecast Margin Netback
Lundin Petroleum Capital Market Day 96 2011 Forecast Margin Netback [USD/boe] Forecast Forecast Forecast 2011 2011 2010 Brent oil price 75.00 90.00 79.50 Revenue 68.25 80.50 70.95 Cost of operations -8.60 -8.60 -8.65 Tariffs -1.80 -1.80 -1.55 Production taxes -3.55 -4.40 -3.75 Stock movements 0.35 0
Slide 51: 2011 Cost of Operations - Quarterly
February 2011 98 2011 Cost of Operations - Quarterly Forecast 2011 Average 13.00 13.00 12.00 12.00 SAGE shutdown, 11.00 Alvheim workover 11.00 USD/boe 10.00 10.00 USD/boe 9.00 9.00 8.00 8.00 7.00 7.00 6.00 6.00 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 WF11209 p4 01.11 notes 99 2011 Forecast Profit Netback [USD/boe] Forecast For
Slide 52: 2011 Forecast Depletion and Taxation
Lundin Petroleum Capital Market Day 100 2011 Forecast Depletion Fo t ast as rec rec Fo 10 11 20 20 30 30 25 25 21.80 20 20 16.10 15.35 15.30 14.55 USD/boe USD/boe 13.05 12.85 15 15 12.60 10.60 10 4.75 10 4.55 4.20 5 5 0 0 France Netherlands Indonesia Norway Russia LUPE Average WF11209 p6 01.11 notes
Slide 53: Norwegian Tax Value
February 2011 102 Norwegian Tax Value Norwegian Tax Value from historic capex spend - 01.01.2011 (MUSD) 350 350 300 300 Net tax value (MUSD) Net tax value (MUSD) 250 250 200 200 150 150 100 100 50 50 0 0 Tax value of Tax value of Tax value of Total undepreciated Capex undepreciated Capex unused upli
Slide 54: 2011 Forecast EBITDA Netback
Lundin Petroleum Capital Market Day 104 2011 Forecast EBITDA Netback [USD/boe] Forecast Forecast 2011 2011 Brent oil price 75.00 90.00 Cash Margin Netback 54.45 65.85 General & Administrative -2.20 -2.20 EBITDA 52.25 63.65 WF11209 p9 01.11 notes 105 2011 Forecast Cash Flow Available for Investment [
Slide 55: Other Investments
February 2011 106 Other Investments Africa Oil Corporation MUSD 23.7 convertible loan in consideration for sale of Ethiopia/Kenya assets Maturity date is 31 December 2011 Convertible into shares of AOC at CAD 0.90 per share (Currently CAD 2.15) ShaMaran Petroleum 50 million shares in ShaMaran (appro
Slide 56: Share Capital December 2010; 5 Year Plan
Lundin Petroleum Capital Market Day 108 Share Capital 31 December 2010 Shares issued 317.9 million Shares in circulation 311 million Treasury shares 6.9 million WF11209 p14 01.11 notes 109 5 Year Plan Cash Flow 550 MUSD per annum Exploration Investment 300 MUSD per annum Development Investment 2,000
Slide 57: Lundin Petroleum 2011 - Continued Growth
February 2011 110 Lundin Petroleum 2011 - Continued Growth Exploration focus to continue Development activity to increase Production to increase Strong balance sheet and operating cash flow to fund continued growth WF11215 p2 01.11 notes 111 Lundin Petroleum www.lundin-petroleum.com WF11207 notes
Slide 58: Lundin Petroleum Capital Market Day notes
Lundin Petroleum Capital Market Day notes
Slide 59: February 2011 notes
February 2011 notes
Slide 60: For further information, contact Lundin Petroleum
For further information, contact Lundin Petroleum Ch. de la Pallanterie 5 1222 Vésenaz Switzerland Telephone: (41 22) 595 10 00 Facsimile: (41 22) 595 10 05 e-mail: info@lundin.ch Website: www.lundin-petroleum.com