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Shell fourth quarter 2025 update note
Shell plc has provided an update to its fourth quarter 2025 outlook, with Integrated Gas production expected between 930-970 kboe/d and LNG liquefaction volumes between 7.5-7.9 MT. Upstream production is projected at 1,840-1,940 kboe/d, while Marketing sales volumes are anticipated to be seasonally lower at 2,650-2,750 kb/d. The indicative refining margin is forecast at $14/bbl, but the indicative chemicals margin is expected to be $140/tonne, with the Chemicals and Products segment adjusted earnings projected to be below break-even due to a non-cash deferred tax adjustment. Renewables and Energy Solutions adjusted earnings are expected to range from ($0.2) to 0.2 billion, and Corporate adjusted earnings are forecast between ($0.6) and ($0.4) billion. Cash flow from operations is anticipated to be impacted by a ~$1.5 billion outflow for emissions certificates and a ~$1.2 billion payment for German Mineral Oil Taxes. Disclaimer*
About this update from Shell Plc
[{"type":"text","content":"\n\n \n \n\n Shell fourth quarter 2025 update note\n\nThe following is an update to the fourth quarter 2025 outlook and gives an overview of our current expectations for the fourth quarter. Outlooks presented may vary from the actual fourth quarter 2025 results and are subject to finalisation of those results, which are scheduled to be published on February 5, 2026. Unless otherwise indicated, all outlook statements exclude identified items. See appendix for the definition of the non-GAAP measure used and the most comparable GAAP measure. Integrated Gas $ billionsQ3’25 Q4’25 OutlookCommentProduction (kboe/d)934930 - 970 LNG liquefaction volumes (MT)7.37.5 - 7.9 Underlying opex1.11.2 - 1.4 Pre-tax depreciation1.61.4 - 1.8 Taxation charge0.50.6 - 0.9 Other Considerations:Trading & Optimisation is expected to be in line with Q3’25. Upstream $ billionsQ3’25Q4’25 OutlookCommentProduction (kboe/d)1,8321,840 - 1,940Includes the impact of the Adura JV incorporation. Underlying opex2.22.1 - 2.7 Pre-tax depreciation2.72.4 - 3.0 Taxation charge1.91.4 - 2.2 Other Considerations:- Marketing $ billionsQ3’25Q4’25 OutlookCommentSales volumes (kb/d)2,8242,650 - 2,750Seasonally lower.Underlying opex2.72.3 - 2.7 Pre-tax depreciation0.60.5 - 0.7 Taxation charge0.40.2 - 0.5 Other Considerations:Marketing adjusted earnings are expected to be below Q4’24, reflecting a (non-cash) deferred tax adjustment in a joint venture. Chemicals and Products $ billionsQ3’25Q4’25 OutlookCommentIndicative refining margin*$12/bbl$14/bbl Indicative chemicals margin*$160/tonne$140/tonneThe Chemicals sub-segment adjusted earnings are expected to be a significant loss, reflecting a (non-cash) deferred tax adjustment in a joint venture.Refinery utilisation96%93% - 97% Chemicals utilisation80%75% - 79% Underlying opex2.11.9 - 2.3 Pre-tax depreciation0.90.7 - 0.9 Taxation charge / (credit)0.30.2 - 0.6 Other Considerations:The Chemicals & Products segment adjusted earnings is expected to be below break-even in Q4’25.Trading & Optimisation is expected to be significantly lower than Q3’25. Following the completion of the Canadian oil sands swap, Q4’25 oil sands production will be ~20 kboe/d. *See appendix Renewables ...