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'Substantial Shortfall' in Copper Supply Widens as the Race for AI and Growing Defense Spending Add to Accelerating Demand, New S&P Global Study Finds
A looming copper supply gap is poised to widen as electricity demand accelerates and new vectors—such as the race for artificial intelligence and surging defense spending—add to the call on copper. According toCopper in the Age of AI: The Challenges of Electrification, a comprehensive new study by S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI), the emerging supply deficit constitutes a "systemic risk for global industries, technological advancement and economic growth."
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[{"type":"text","content":"Supply deficit would reach 10 million metric tons by 2040 as demand surges 50%","length":78,"tagName":"p","attribs":{}},{"type":"text","content":"WASHINGTON, Jan. 8, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- A looming copper supply gap is poised to widen as electricity demand accelerates and new vectors—such as the race for artificial intelligence and surging defense spending—add to the call on copper. According to Copper in the Age of AI: The Challenges of Electrification, a comprehensive new study by S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI), the emerging supply deficit constitutes a "systemic risk for global industries, technological advancement and economic growth."","length":512,"tagName":"p"},{"type":"image","alt":"S&P Global Logo (PRNewsfoto/S&P Global)","displaySize":"","headline":null,"caption":"S&P Global Logo (PRNewsfoto/S&P Global)","className":"","disableSlideshowImg":false,"size":{"original":{"width":400,"height":155,"url":"https://media.zenfs.com/en/prnewswire.com/31ec38d589403c8b14ea2089279ac1a0"},"resized":{"url":"https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/hi05G45m0CmvazWuQVM._Q--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTcwNTtoPTI3MztjZj13ZWJw/https://media.zenfs.com/en/prnewswire.com/31ec38d589403c8b14ea2089279ac1a0","width":400,"height":155}},"href":"https://mma.prnewswire.com/media/2842604/SP_Global_Logo.html","hrefExternal":true,"rel":"nofollow"},{"type":"text","content":"The study finds that the "accelerating pace of electrification" is projected to swell copper demand to 42 million metric tons by 2040, a 50% increase from current levels. Yet, existing supply is currently poised to decrease in coming years as the mining sector faces challenges across the copper value chain.","length":318,"tagName":"p"},{"type":"text","content":"The study projects that global copper production will peak in 2030 at 33 million metric tons. Unless significant adjustments are made, the widening disconnect will result in a supply deficit of 10 million metric tons by 2040—25% below projected demand.","length":252,"tagName":"p"},{"type":"text","content":"This "substantial shortfall" occurs despite what the study expects will be a more than doubling of recycled copper scrap, from 4 million metric tons today to 10 million metric tons by 2040.","length":199,"tagName":"p"},{"type":"text","content":""Here, in short, is the quandary: copper is the ...