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Natwest Group Plc
NatWest : Post Results Consensus (natwest group post q126 consensus)
Published 6h ago
4 min read

NatWest : Post Results Consensus (natwest group post q126 consensus)

‌Post Q1 2026 Consensus Financial Estimates

NatWest Group Investor Relations 21 May 2026





‌NatWest Group - Post Q1 2026 Consensus Financial Estimates (Average)1

Models as at 21 May 2026

Quarter

Full Year

Q1'26 Q2'26E 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E

Analysts included in consensus 15 15 15 15

NatWest Group

Group income statement, £m

Net interest income

3,394

3,517

Non-interest income

964

884

Total income 1

4,358

4,400

Other operating expenses 1

(2,027)

(2,013)

Litigation and conduct

(15)

(68)

Operating expenses

(2,042)

(2,081)

Operating profit before impairment losses

2,316

2,319

Impairment losses

(283)

(235)

Operating profit/(loss) before tax

2,033

2,084

Tax (charge)/credit

(526)

(560)

Profit/(loss) for the period for continuing operations

1,507

1,523

Profit/(loss) from discontinued operations, net of tax

0

0

Profit/(loss) for the period

1,507

1,523

12,829

14,250

15,381

16,037

3,812

3,846

4,127

4,282

16,641

18,097

19,507

20,320

(8,095)

(8,465)

(8,847)

(8,967)

(167)

(218)

(240)

(239)

(8,262)

(8,683)

(9,088)

(9,207)

8,379

9,414

10,420

11,113

(671)

(1,027)

(1,114)

(1,177)

7,708

8,387

9,306

9,936

(1,874)

(2,255)

(2,528)

(2,700)

5,834

6,132

6,778

7,236

0

(0)

0

0

5,834

6,132

6,778

7,236

Attributable to:

Ordinary shareholders

1,432

1,440

Other owners

73

82

Non-controlling interests

2

1

5,479

5,802

6,440

6,891

352

326

335

341

3

3

3

3

Notable items

Notable items in income

135

2

Net interest income notable items

0

0

Non-interest income notable items

135

2

Memo: Net interest income excluding notable items

3,394

3,517

Memo: Non-interest income excluding notable items

829

882

Memo: Total income excluding all notable items 1

4,223

4,398

241

132

7

7

0

0

0

0

241

132

7

7

12,829

14,250

15,381

16,037

3,571

3,715

4,119

4,275

16,400

17,965

19,500

20,313

1 Models reflected in FY'26 consensus include estimates for Evelyn Partners. Some analysts assume consolidation at end Q2 and others in Q3, therefore some Q2'26 metrics are non-meaningful and are not included'. FY'26 guidance excludes Evelyn Partners as per Slide 19, Q1'26 Outlook Statement. Guidance is for FY'26 total income excluding notable items to be at the top end of £17.2-17.6bn. The equivalent estimate from consensus is £17,712m. Guidance for FY'26 other operating expenses is around £8.2bn. The equivalent estimate from consensus is £8,236m. The estimate from consensus, excluding the contribution from Evelyn Partners, for AUMA is £61.5bn.

2 3 businesses reflect balances across Retail Banking, Private Banking and Commercial and Institutional. Group includes Central items & other.

3 Guidance per Q1'26 outlook statement, Slide 19, Q1'26 Outlook Statement: "We expect Basel 3.1 to increase RWAs by around £10 billion on 1 January 2027". Consensus estimates for FY'26 RWA and CET1 are pro forma for B3.1 implementation on 1 Jan'27. The mean uplift for RWAs from B3.1 implementation is £10bn. 4 For FY'25 Evelyn Partners financials, see Slide 22, FY'25 Management Presentation.

Quarter Full Year

Q1'26 Q2'26E 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E

Analysts included in consensus 15 15 15 15

Group balance sheet, AUMA, and capital, £bn

Gross loans to customers (amortised cost) (Group)

435.3

438.7

422.5

442.8

457.2

472.1

Customer deposits (Group)

445.5

448.3

443.0

454.3

467.0

479.5

Gross loans to customers (amortised cost) across the 3 businesses 2

400.0

403.9

392.7

409.4

423.5

438.0

Customer deposits across the 3 businesses 2

444.8

448.0

441.7

454.2

466.4

478.7

AUMA 1

56.7

58.5

132.3

141.5

151.1

Investment cash double count adjustment 1

(1.4)

(1.2)

(1.2)

(1.2)

(1.2)

Group customer assets and liabilities (CAL) 1

900.1

891.7

994.7

1,030.2

1,066.6

Group average interest-earning assets (AIEAs)



556.3

561.6

547.4

563.1

580.1

596.9

Total assets

749.6

745.8

714.6

745.8

764.1

782.3

Risk weighted assets 3

196.0

198.2

193.3

212.6

220.5

228.6

Tangible equity 1

31.9

30.7

30.9

33.6

35.3

Average tangible equity (denominator for RoTE) 1

31.5

28.6

30.7

32.1

34.3

Number of ordinary shares in issue (m) - period end

7,971

7,918

7,995

7,894

7,779

7,480

Number of ordinary shares in issue (m) - average

7,979

7,944

8,052

7,930

7,842

7,643

Key metrics and ratios

Group net interest margin

2.47%

2.51%

Cost:income ratio

46.5%

45.8%

Loan impairment rate

0.26%

0.22%

Return on tangible equity 1

18.2%

Earnings/(loss) per ordinary share (p)

17.9p

18.1p

Ordinary DPS (p)

--

11.6p

Buybacks

0

0

Tangible net asset value (TNAV) per ordinary share (p) 1

400p

Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio 1,3

14.3%

Capital generation pre-distributions

2.34%

2.53%

2.65%

2.69%

48.6%

46.8%

45.4%

44.1%

0.16%

0.24%

0.25%

0.25%

19.2%

18.9%

19.9%

19.9%

68.0p

73.2p

82.1p

90.2p

32.5p

36.5p

41.2p

45.5p

1,500

67

1,800

2,100

384p

391p

432p

472p

14.0%

13.0%

13.1%

13.2%

2.52%

1.83%

2.55%

Interest rate expectations

UK base rate (end of period)

3.75%

3.79%

UK base rate (average for the period)

3.75%

3.76%

3.75%

3.86%

3.65%

3.61%

4.27%

3.80%

3.68%

3.59%

MEMO: Evelyn Partners estimates in 2026 1,4

Income

--

Other operating expenses (including CTA/transaction costs)

--

AUMA

253

(229)

70.8

2



‌NatWest Group - Post Q1 2026 Consensus Financial Estimates (High & Low)1

Models as at 21 May 2026

Quarter

Full Year

Q2'26E

2026E 2027E

2028E

Analysts included in consensus 15 15

NatWest Group

Group income statement, £m

Low

Average

High

Net interest income

3,470

3,517

3,545

Non-interest income

850

884

947

Total income 1

4,339

4,400

4,454

Other operating expenses 1

(2,085)

(2,013)

(1,947)

Litigation and conduct

(96)

(68)

(40)

Operating expenses

(2,174)

(2,081)

(2,011)

Operating profit before impairment losses

2,165

2,319

2,394

Impairment losses

(264)

(235)

(193)

Operating profit/(loss) before tax

1,943

2,084

2,166

Tax (charge)/credit

(620)

(560)

(478)

Profit/(loss) for the period for continuing operations

1,419

1,523

1,601

Profit/(loss) from discontinued operations, net of tax

0

0

0

Profit/(loss) for the period

1,419

1,523

1,601

Low

Average

High

14,096

14,250

14,529

3,735

3,846

3,925

17,934

18,097

18,387

(8,549)

(8,465)

(8,368)

(280)

(218)

(165)

(8,778)

(8,683)

(8,608)

9,189

9,414

9,779

(1,145)

(1,027)

(923)

8,164

8,387

8,781

(2,456)

(2,255)

(2,144)

5,954

6,132

6,327

(2)

(0)

0

5,954

6,132

6,327

Attributable to:

15 15

Low

Average

High

14,911

15,381

16,327

3,890

4,127

4,302

19,125

19,507

20,457

(9,014)

(8,847)

(8,667)

(300)

(240)

(200)

(9,260)

(9,088)

(8,920)

10,024

10,420

11,490

(1,219)

(1,114)

(962)

8,916

9,306

10,413

(2,968)

(2,528)

(2,355)

6,509

6,778

7,445

0

0

0

6,509

6,778

7,445

Low

Average

High

15,375

16,037

17,348

4,018

4,282

4,434

19,766

20,320

21,730

(9,191)

(8,967)

(8,801)

(300)

(239)

(200)

(9,438)

(9,207)

(9,045)

10,612

11,113

12,629

(1,387)

(1,177)

(990)

9,434

9,936

11,493

(3,268)

(2,700)

(2,504)

6,887

7,236

8,225

0

0

0

6,887

7,236

8,225

Ordinary shareholders

1,328

1,440

1,525

Other owners

72

82

102

Non-controlling interests

(1)

1

3

5,635

5,802

6,031

290

326

360

(2)

3

11

6,179

6,440

7,141

292

335

378

0

3

12

6,534

6,891

7,921

292

341

397

0

3

12

Notable items

Notable items in income

0

2

29

Net interest income notable items

0

0

0

Non-interest income notable items

0

2

29

Memo: Net interest income excluding notable items

3,470

3,517

3,545

Memo: Non-interest income excluding notable items

850

882

947

Memo: Total income excluding all notable items 1

4,339

4,398

4,454

0

132

221

0

0

0

0

132

221

14,096

14,250

14,529

3,600

3,715

3,902

17,799

17,965

18,252

0

7

110

0

0

0

0

7

110

14,911

15,381

16,327

3,890

4,119

4,302

19,125

19,500

20,457

0

7

105

0

0

0

0

7

105

15,375

16,037

17,348

4,018

4,275

4,434

19,766

20,313

21,730

1 Models reflected in FY'26 consensus include estimates for Evelyn Partners. FY'26 guidance excludes Evelyn Partners as per Slide 19, Q1'26 Outlook Statement (also see footnote 1 on page 2 of this document).

3



‌NatWest Group - Post Q1 2026 Consensus Financial Estimates (High & Low)1

Models as at 21 May 2026

Quarter Full Year

Q2'26E 2026E 2027E 2028E

Analysts included in consensus 15 15 15 15

Group balance sheet and capital, £bn Low Average High

Low Average High

Low Average High

Low Average High

Gross loans to customers (amortised cost) (Group)

432.8

438.7

443.2

435.8

442.8

449.5

447.0

457.2

465.6

458.1

472.1

482.9

Customer deposits (Group)

444.7

448.3

452.9

447.0

454.3

460.5

457.8

467.0

476.3

467.2

479.5

493.0

Gross loans to customers (amortised cost) across the 3 businesses 2

401.3

403.9

406.7

401.3

409.4

414.3

411.4

423.5

431.6

422.6

438.0

450.8

Customer deposits across the 3 businesses 2

444.0

448.0

452.2

447.4

454.2

459.8

456.5

466.4

475.7

465.8

478.7

492.5

AUMA 1

55.2

127.0

127.0

132.3

141.3

130.2

141.5

167.3

131.5

151.1

195.7

Investment cash double count adjustment 1

(1.4)

(1.0)

(1.4)

(1.2)

(1.0)

(1.4)

(1.2)

(1.0)

(1.4)

(1.2)

(1.0)

Group customer assets and liabilities (CAL) 1

905.6

975.0

985.0

994.7

1,005.4

1,014.3

1,030.2

1,046.4

1,046.7

1,066.6

1,091.1

Group average interest-earning assets (AIEAs)

556.9

561.6

567.7

551.0

563.1

573.3

562.3

580.1

597.8

574.7

596.9

619.5

Total assets

718.1

745.8

756.2

721.7

745.8

768.3

728.9

764.1

794.9

736.2

782.3

822.8

Risk weighted assets 3

194.0

198.2

201.5

209.7

212.6

216.6

215.6

220.5

227.6

221.0

228.6

239.1

Tangible equity 1

28.4

31.9

30.3

30.9

33.0

32.7

33.6

35.9

34.1

35.3

38.2

Average tangible equity (denominator for RoTE) 1

28.5

31.9

30.1

30.7

31.1

31.6

32.1

32.7

33.4

34.3

34.9

Number of ordinary shares in issue (m) - period end

7,862

7,918

8,034

7,859

7,894

7,962

7,625

7,779

7,892

7,268

7,480

7,745

Number of ordinary shares in issue (m) - average

7,917

7,944

8,002

7,905

7,930

7,958

7,759

7,842

7,927

7,446

7,643

7,812

Key metrics and ratios

Group net interest margin

2.48%

2.51%

2.54%

Cost:income ratio

44.2%

45.8%

48.1%

Loan impairment rate

0.17%

0.22%

0.24%

Return on tangible equity 1

17.6%

19.2%

Earnings/(loss) per ordinary share (p)

16.6p

18.1p

19.2p

Ordinary DPS (p)

10.0p

11.6p

13.0p

Buybacks

0

0

0

Tangible net asset value (TNAV) per ordinary share (p) 1

359p

397p

Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio 1,3

13.1%

14.6%

Capital generation pre-distributions

2.48%

2.53%

2.60%

45.5%

46.8%

47.4%

0.21%

0.24%

0.27%

17.9%

18.9%

19.7%

70.9p

73.2p

76.1p

34.3p

36.5p

38.1p

0

67

1,000

383p

391p

418p

12.6%

13.0%

13.2%

2.57%

2.65%

2.83%

42.4%

45.4%

46.6%

0.21%

0.25%

0.27%

18.4%

19.9%

22.1%

78.5p

82.1p

92.0p

39.0p

41.2p

46.0p

1,000

1,800

2,650

422p

432p

470p

13.0%

13.1%

13.5%

1.48%

1.83%

2.30%

2.56%

2.69%

2.88%

40.5%

44.1%

45.4%

0.21%

0.25%

0.30%

18.3%

19.9%

21.7%

83.7p

90.2p

106.4p

43.1p

45.5p

53.0p

1,500

2,100

2,500

456p

472p

525p

12.9%

13.2%

13.6%

2.13%

2.55%

3.00%

Interest rate expectations

UK base rate (end of period)

3.75%

3.79%

4.00%

UK base rate (average for the period)

3.75%

3.76%

3.88%

3.50%

3.86%

4.39%

3.72%

3.80%

4.00%

3.25%

3.65%

4.38%

3.25%

3.68%

4.43%

3.25%

3.61%

4.17%

3.00%

3.59%

4.28%

MEMO: Evelyn Partners estimates in 2026 1,4

Income

Other operating expenses (including CTA/transaction costs)

AUMA

225

253

263

(315)

(229)

(165)

68.8

70.8

75.0

1 Models reflected in FY'26 consensus include estimates for Evelyn Partners. Some analysts assume consolidation at end Q2 and others in Q3, therefore some Q2'26 metrics are non-meaningful and are not included'. FY'26

guidance excludes Evelyn Partners as per Slide 19, Q1'26 Outlook Statement (also see footnote 1 on page 2 of this document).

2 3 businesses reflect balances across Retail Banking, Private Banking and Commercial and Institutional. Group includes Central items & other.

3 Guidance per Q1'26 outlook statement, Slide 19, Q1'26 Outlook Statement: "We expect Basel 3.1 to increase RWAs by around £10 billion on 1 January 2027". Consensus estimates for FY'26 RWA and CET1 are pro forma for B3.1

4

implementation on 1 Jan '27. The mean uplift for RWAs from B3.1 implementation is £10bn.

4 For FY'25 Evelyn Partners financials, see Slide 22, FY'25 Management Presentation.



‌NatWest Group - Post Q1 2026 Consensus Financial Estimates (High & Low income excluding notable items)

Models as at 21 May 2026

Quarter

Full Year

Q2'26E

2026E

2027E 2028E

Analysts included in consensus 15 15 15 15

Group 1

Low

Average

High

Net interest income excluding notable items

3,470

3,517

3,545

Non-interest income excluding notable items

850

882

947

Total income excluding all notable items

4,339

4,398

4,454

Low

Average

High

14,096

14,250

14,529

3,600

3,715

3,902

17,799

17,965

18,252

Low

Average

High

14,911

15,381

16,327

3,890

4,119

4,302

19,125

19,500

20,457

Low

Average

High

15,375

16,037

17,348

4,018

4,275

4,434

19,766

20,313

21,730

Retail Banking, Private Banking and Commercial & Institutional combined

Low

Average

High

Net interest income excluding notable items

3,485

3,533

3,607

Non-interest income excluding notable items

843

865

900

Total income excluding all notable items

4,339

4,398

4,450

Low

Average

High

14,107

14,305

14,560

3,539

3,644

3,755

17,786

17,949

18,243

Low

Average

High

15,150

15,514

16,327

3,890

4,042

4,107

19,131

19,556

20,357

Low

Average

High

15,773

16,244

17,414

4,018

4,188

4,253

19,803

20,431

21,586

Analysts included in consensus 13 12 12 12

Analysts included in consensus 13 12 12 12

Central items & other

Low

Average

High

Net interest income excluding notable items

(67)

(13)

0

Non-interest income excluding notable items

0

14

55

Total income excluding all notable items

(58)

1

35

Low

Average

High

(80)

(32)

(4)

19

63

220

5

31

140

Low

Average

High

(120)

(44)

0

0

75

220

(6)

32

144

Low

Average

High

(120)

(43)

0

0

75

220

(6)

32

144

1 The sum of 'Retail Banking, Private Banking and Commercial & Institutional combined' and 'Central items & other' does not equal 'Group' as not all analysts provide forecasts of business segments

5



‌NatWest Group - Post Q1 2026 Consensus Financial Estimates

Models as at 21 May 2026

Disclaimer

The consensus information has been calculated using average estimates received from research analysts.

The opinions, estimates, forecasts and recommendations, and the consensus information derived there from, are those of the analysts alone and do not represent opinions, estimates or forecasts of NatWest or its management.

By presenting the consensus information, NatWest does not endorse or concur with any of such analysts' opinions, estimates, forecasts or recommendations. NatWest has not verified any of the information it has received and none of NatWest, its affiliates or their respective directors, officers and employees make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to, or accept any responsibility for, the accuracy or completeness of the consensus information or otherwise endorse or concur with any of the consensus information.

NatWest does not assume any responsibility to update, revise or supplement any information. This consensus summary is being provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to, nor does it, constitute investment advice or any solicitation to buy, hold or sell securities or other financial instruments.

The NatWest Group Investor Relations Team

Claire Kane

Director of Investor Relations

+44 (0) 7929 803 009

Claire.Kane@natwest.com

Nick Gough

Head of Equity Investor Relations

+44 (0) 7929 383 731

Nick.Gough@natwest.com

Paul Pybus

Head of Debt Investor Relations

+44 (0) 7769 161 183

Paul.Pybus@natwest.com

Andrew MacLean

Equity Investor Relations Lead

+44 (0) 7595 248 887

Andrew.MacLean@natwest.com

Oliver Sherman

Equity Investor Relations

+44 (0) 7825 921 601

Oliver.Sherman@natwest.com

Farida Abbasova

Equity Investor Relations

+44 (0) 7542 313 896

Farida.Abbasova@natwest.com

Olivia Saddler

Equity Investor Relations

+44 (0) 7484 407 158

Olivia.Saddler@natwest.com

6