Keurig Dr Pepper Reports Q3 2023 Results and Reaffirms Full Year Guidance

Q3 Performance Led by Continued Net Sales Momentum and Strong Gross Margin Expansion

BURLINGTON, Mass. and FRISCO, Texas, Oct. 26, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (NASDAQ: KDP) today reported results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2023 and reaffirmed its guidance for full year constant currency net sales growth of 5% to 6% and Adjusted diluted EPS growth of 6% to 7%.

"In the third quarter, we maintained healthy revenue momentum and delivered a significant gross margin inflection, helping to fund reinvestment in our brands and capabilities," said Chairman and CEO Bob Gamgort. "In addition to continued strong results across our U.S. Refreshment Beverages and International segments, we also began to rebuild our margins in U.S. Coffee. We are reaffirming our full year outlook and remain committed to delivering a strong Q4 with an improved composition of earnings."

Gamgort continued, "KDP continues to pair strong execution and financial delivery with building the foundation for the Company's next phase of growth. Today we announced our expansion into sports hydration through a new and exciting partnership with Grupo PiSA for Electrolit. Over the past 12 months, we have established new growth platforms in sports hydration, energy and RTD coffee by partnering with compelling brands and leveraging our unique distribution assets across both cold and hot beverages to attract strong partnerships."

Third Quarter Consolidated Results

Net sales for the third quarter of 2023 increased 5.1% to $3.81 billion, compared to $3.62 billion in the year-ago period. On a constant currency basis, net sales advanced 4.1%, driven by net price realization of 5.5% that was only partially offset by lower volume/mix of 1.4%. Revenue momentum reflected the continued strength of the Company's brand portfolio and in-market execution, as well as manageable elasticity across most categories.

GAAP operating income increased 127.4% to $896 million, compared to $394 million in the year-ago period. The comparison primarily reflected the favorable year-over-year impact of items affecting comparability, including a $311 million impairment in the prior year period, as well as strong gross profit growth.

Adjusted1 operating income increased 3.1% to $984 million and totaled 25.9% as a percent of net sales. Adjusted operating income growth was driven by 6.0% Adjusted gross profit growth, translating to 100 basis points of Adjusted gross margin expansion, with gains from pricing and productivity more than offsetting both the modest volume/mix decline and continued input cost pressure. The growth in Adjusted gross profit funded a double-digit increase in marketing investment and more than offset inflation in transportation, warehousing and other corporate costs.

GAAP net income for the quarter increased 187.8% to $518 million, or $0.37 per diluted share, compared to $180 million, or $0.13 per diluted share, in the year-ago period. This performance primarily reflected a favorable year-over-year impact of items affecting comparability, partially offset by a higher GAAP tax rate.

Adjusted net income for the quarter advanced 1.8% to $673 million, and Adjusted diluted EPS increased 4.3% to $0.48.  The Adjusted net income and EPS growth was driven by the Adjusted operating income growth, partly offset by higher interest expense.

Operating cash flow for the third quarter was $580 million and free cash flow totaled $459 million.  As expected, free cash flow strengthened from the first half of the year, reflecting the combination of profit growth and moderating working capital usage.

Third Quarter Segment Results

U.S. Refreshment Beverages

Net sales for the third quarter increased 5.9% to $2.27 billion, compared to $2.14 billion in the year-ago period, driven by net price realization of 7.1% and a modest decline in volume/mix of 1.2%. This strong performance reflected resilient category trends, continued market share gains and the contribution from KDP's sales and distribution partnership with Nutrabolt for C4 Energy.

KDP in-market performance in the U.S. Liquid Refreshment Beverages (LRB) category remained healthy. Retail dollar consumption2 advanced 7.0% and market share grew in categories representing approximately 82% of the Company's cold beverage retail sales base. The dollar share gains were led by Dr Pepper and Squirt in CSDs3, Polar in unsweetened sparkling water, Vita Coco, C4 Energy and Mott's apple juice.

GAAP operating income increased 109.9% to $676 million, compared to $322 million in the year-ago period. The growth primarily reflected the favorable year-over-year impact of items affecting comparability, including the aforementioned $311 million impairment in the prior year period.

Adjusted operating income increased 6.1% to $695 million and totaled 30.6% as a percent of net sales, driven by net sales gains and productivity, which more than offset continued broad-based input cost inflation and a significant increase in marketing investment.

U.S. Coffee

Net sales for the third quarter decreased 3.2% to $1.01 billion, compared to $1.05 billion in the year-ago period, driven by net price realization of 3.1% and a volume/mix decline of 6.3%.

Pod revenue decreased 4.8%, driven by a shipment decline of 8.1%. As expected, pod volume growth lagged gradually improving single serve category consumption, due to an unfavorable comparison to trade inventory builds in the year-ago period and the continued impact of exiting certain low-margin private label contracts.

Across IRi tracked channels, U.S. retail dollar consumption of KDP-Manufactured K-Cup® Pods decreased 7.0%, with significantly stronger performance registered in untracked channels. KDP Manufactured dollar share in the quarter was approximately 79%.

Brewer shipments totaled 10.2 million for the twelve months ending September 30, 2023, declining 4.5% year-over-year. In the quarter, brewer shipments grew year-over-year as KDP prepared for the upcoming holiday season, which is a key period for brewer demand.

GAAP operating income increased 7.7% to $293 million, compared to $272 million in the year-ago period, including a modest year-over-year benefit of items affecting comparability.

Adjusted operating income increased 5.7% to $333 million and totaled 32.9% as a percent of net sales. Adjusted operating income margin inflected strongly versus prior year, driven by higher net price realization and productivity, which more than offset the impacts of the volume/mix decline and inflation.

International

Net sales for the third quarter increased 20.8% to $523 million, compared to $433 million in the year-ago period. On a constant currency basis, net sales advanced 12.9%, driven by volume/mix growth of 9.0% and net price realization of 3.9%. This very strong performance reflected continued momentum in both Mexico and Canada.

GAAP operating income increased 43.3% to $139 million, compared to $97 million in the year-ago period, including a modest year-over-year benefit of items affecting comparability.

Adjusted operating income increased 31.7% to $145 million and totaled 28.0% as a percent of net sales, driven by the net sales momentum and productivity gains, which more than offset continued inflation.

2023 Guidance

The 2023 guidance provided below is presented on a constant currency, non-GAAP basis.  The Company does not provide reconciliations of such forward-looking non-GAAP measures to GAAP measures, due to the inability to predict the amount and timing of impacts outside of the Company's control on certain items, such as non-cash gains or losses resulting from mark-to-market adjustments of derivative instruments, among others, which could be material.

KDP reaffirmed its 2023 guidance for constant currency net sales growth of 5% to 6% and Adjusted diluted EPS growth of 6% to 7%.

Investor Contacts:

Jane GelfandT: 888-340-5287 / jane.gelfand@kdrp.com

Chethan MallelaT: 888-340-5287 / chethan.mallela@kdrp.com

Media Contact:

Katie GilroyT: 781-418-3345 / katie.gilroy@kdrp.com

ABOUT KEURIG DR PEPPER

Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) is a leading beverage company in North America, with annual revenue of more than $14 billion and approximately 28,000 employees. KDP holds leadership positions in liquid refreshment beverages, including soft drinks, specialty coffee and tea, water, juice and juice drinks and mixers, and markets the #1 single serve coffee brewing system in the U.S. and Canada. The Company's portfolio of more than 125 owned, licensed and partner brands is designed to satisfy virtually any consumer need, any time, and includes Keurig®, Dr Pepper®, Canada Dry®, Clamato®, CORE®, Green Mountain Coffee Roasters®, Mott's®, Snapple®, and The Original Donut Shop®. Through its powerful sales and distribution network, KDP can deliver its portfolio of hot and cold beverages to nearly every point of purchase for consumers. The Company's Drink Well. Do Good. corporate responsibility platform is focused on the greatest opportunities for impact in the environment, its supply chain, the health and well-being of consumers and with its people and communities. For more information, visit www.keurigdrpepper.com. 

FORWARD LOOKING STATEMENTS

Certain statements contained herein are "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of applicable securities laws and regulations. These forward-looking statements can generally be identified by the use of words such as "outlook," "guidance," "anticipate," "expect," "believe," "could," "estimate," "feel," "forecast," "intend," "may," "plan," "potential," "project," "should," "target," "will," "would," and similar words. Forward-looking statements by their nature address matters that are, to different degrees, uncertain. These statements are based on the current expectations of our management, are not predictions of actual performance, and actual results may differ materially.

Forward-looking statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, including the factors disclosed in our Annual Report on Form 10-K and subsequent filings with the SEC. We are under no obligation to update, modify or withdraw any forward-looking statements, except as required by applicable law.

NON-GAAP FINANCIAL MEASURES

This release includes certain non-GAAP financial measures including Adjusted gross profit, Adjusted operating income, Adjusted net income, Adjusted diluted EPS, free cash flow and financial measures presented on a constant currency basis, which differ from results using U.S. Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP). These non-GAAP financial measures should be considered as supplements to the GAAP reported measures, should not be considered replacements for, or superior to, the GAAP measures and may not be comparable to similarly named measures used by other companies. Non-GAAP financial measures typically exclude certain charges, including one-time costs that are not expected to occur routinely in future periods. The Company uses non-GAAP financial measures internally to focus management on performance excluding these special charges to gauge our business operating performance. Management believes this information is helpful to investors because it increases transparency and assists investors in understanding the underlying performance of the Company and in the analysis of ongoing operating trends. Additionally, management believes that non-GAAP financial measures are frequently used by analysts and investors in their evaluation of companies, and their continued inclusion provides consistency in financial reporting and enables analysts and investors to perform meaningful comparisons of past, present and future operating results. The most directly comparable GAAP financial measures and reconciliations to non-GAAP financial measures are set forth in the appendix to this release and included in the Company's filings with the SEC.

To the extent that the Company provides guidance, it does so only on a non-GAAP basis and does not provide reconciliations of such forward-looking non-GAAP measures to GAAP due to the inability to predict the amount and timing of impacts outside of the Company's control on certain items, such as non-cash gains or losses resulting from mark-to-market adjustments of derivative instruments, among others, which could be material.

KEURIG DR PEPPER INC.RECONCILIATION OF CERTAIN NON-GAAP INFORMATION(UNAUDITED)

The company reports its financial results in accordance with U.S. GAAP. However, management believes that certain non-GAAP financial measures that reflect the way management evaluates the business may provide investors with additional information regarding the company's results, trends and ongoing performance on a comparable basis.

Specifically, investors should consider the following with respect to our financial results:

Adjusted: Defined as certain financial statement captions and metrics adjusted for certain items affecting comparability.

Items affecting comparability: Defined as certain items that are excluded for comparison to prior year periods, adjusted for the tax impact as applicable. Tax impact is determined based upon an approximate rate for each item. For each period, management adjusts for (i) the unrealized mark-to-market impact of derivative instruments not designated as hedges in accordance with U.S. GAAP that do not have an offsetting risk reflected within the financial results, as well as the unrealized mark-to-market impact of our Vita Coco investment; (ii) the amortization associated with definite-lived intangible assets; (iii) the amortization of the deferred financing costs associated with the DPS Merger; (iv) the amortization of the fair value adjustment of the senior unsecured notes obtained as a result of the DPS Merger; (v) stock compensation expense and the associated windfall tax benefit attributable to the matching awards made to employees who made an initial investment in KDP; (vi) transaction costs for significant business combinations (completed or abandoned); (vii) non-cash changes in deferred tax liabilities related to goodwill and other intangible assets as a result of tax rate or apportionment changes; (viii) impairments recognized on certain intangible assets; and (ix) other certain items that are excluded for comparison purposes to prior year periods.

For the third quarter and first nine months of 2023, the other certain items excluded for comparison purposes include (i) productivity expenses, (ii) restructuring expenses associated with the 2023 CEO Succession and Associated Realignment, and (iii) costs related to significant non-routine legal matters, specifically the antitrust litigation. Additionally, during the first nine months of 2023, the non-cash changes in deferred tax liabilities related to goodwill and other intangible assets included an immaterial non-cash true-up of the valuation of foreign deferred tax liabilities related to a prior period.

For the third quarter and first nine months of 2022, the other certain items excluded for comparison purposes include (i) restructuring and integration expenses related to significant business combinations; (ii) productivity expenses; (iii) costs related to significant non-routine legal matters, specifically the antitrust litigation; (iv) the loss on early extinguishment of debt related to the redemption of debt; (v) incremental costs to our operations related to risks associated with the COVID-19 pandemic, which were incurred to either maintain the health and safety of our front-line employees or temporarily increase compensation to such employees to ensure essential operations continue during the pandemic; (vi) the gain on the sale of our investment in BodyArmor as a result of the settlement of the associated holdback liability; (vii) the gain on the settlement of our prior litigation with BodyArmor, excluding recoveries of previously incurred litigation expenses which were included in our adjusted results; (viii) losses recognized with respect to our equity method investment in Bedford as a result of funding our share of their wind-down costs; and (ix) foundational projects, which are transformative and non-recurring in nature.

Constant currency adjusted: Defined as certain financial statement captions and metrics adjusted for certain items affecting comparability, calculated on a constant currency basis by converting our current period local currency financial results using the prior period foreign currency exchange rates.

For the third quarter and first nine months of 2023 and 2022, the supplemental financial data set forth below includes reconciliations of adjusted and constant currency adjusted financial measures to the applicable financial measure presented in the unaudited condensed consolidated financial statements for the same period.