R e g i o n a l M o r n i n g N o t e s
COMPANY RESULTS
VSTECS (VST MK)
3Q24: Strong Results; Anticipating A Sequentially Stronger 4Q24
VSTECS's 3Q24 earnings came in strong at RM19.5m (+55% yoy, +28% qoq) with a record quarterly revenue driven by a recovery in both consumer and enterprise spending. While 9M24 results accounted for only 67% of our full-year estimate, we expect a stronger 4Q24 sequentially. A key inflection point may occur with the government's rollout of new DC incentives, which could supercharge VSTECS' growth by unlocking its TAM. Maintain BUY. Target price: RM5.02.
3Q24 RESULTS
Year to 31 Dec (RMm) | 3Q24 | qoq% chg | yoy % chg | 9M24 | yoy % chg |
Revenue | 841.76 | 34.81 | 30.22 | 2,082.52 | 8.47 |
Gross Profit | 48.92 | 30.45 | 28.56 | 124.43 | 11.44 |
EBITDA | 24.17 | 28.43 | 46.43 | 60.82 | 8.84 |
EBIT | 23.31 | 29.63 | 48.46 | 58.29 | 8.83 |
PBT | 26.48 | 31.25 | 53.45 | 65.53 | 13.22 |
Tax expense | (6.92) | 40.22 | 52.69 | (16.40) | 11.91 |
PATAMI | 19.57 | 28.34 | 53.72 | 49.13 | 13.67 |
Core PATAMI | 19.53 | 28.31 | 55.26 | 48.91 | 13.41 |
Margins (%) | qoq ppt chg | yoy ppt chg | yoy ppt chg | ||
Gross Profit | 5.81 | (0.19) | (0.05) | 5.98 | 0.16 |
EBITDA | 2.87 | (0.14) | (0.42) | 2.92 | 0.01 |
PBT | 3.15 | (0.09) | (0.26) | 3.15 | 0.13 |
Core Net Profit | 2.32 | (0.12) | (0.25) | 2.35 | 0.10 |
Source: VSTECS, UOB Kay Hian
RESULTS
- Within expectations. VSTECS' 3Q24 core net profit came in at RM19.5m (+55% yoy, +28% qoq) on record-high quarterly revenue of RM841.8m (+30% yoy; 35% qoq). The strong yoy and qoq growth in earnings was driven by robust performance across the three segments: ICT distribution (+31% yoy, +41% qoq), enterprise systems (+29% yoy, +24% qoq), and ICT services (+32% yoy, +60% qoq). This growth was fuelled by the recovery in both consumer and enterprise spending, new product launches, and stronger cloud sales. This resulted in 9M24 core net profit accounting for 67% of our full-year estimate, and we deem the results within expectations as we expect a sequentially stronger 4Q24.
- We expect earnings to catch up in 4Q24, consistent with previous years, and supported by:
- higher momentum from the ICT distribution segment following seasonally higher consumer spending in 4Q, buoyed by Google Pixel and iPhone16, b) stronger cloud service,
- increased contribution from VMWARE under a new exclusive arrangement (doubling effect), and d) more shipments of AI-related DC equipment in 4Q24, e) steady adoption of Starlink with the potential rollout of Starlink Mini in 4Q24, and f) seasonally stronger consumer and enterprise spending in 4Q24.
KEY FINANCIALS
Year to 31 Dec (RMm) | 2022 | 2023 | 2024F | 2025F | 2026F |
Net turnover | 2770.6 | 2727.2 | 3035.6 | 3413.8 | 3868.3 |
EBITDA | 79.5 | 82.7 | 89.0 | 111.8 | 135.9 |
Operating profit | 76.6 | 79.6 | 92.2 | 113.4 | 136.9 |
Net profit (rep./act.) | 59.7 | 67.4 | 72.9 | 89.5 | 107.9 |
Net profit (adj.) | 59.4 | 62.0 | 72.9 | 89.5 | 107.9 |
EPS (sen) | 16.7 | 17.4 | 20.4 | 25.1 | 30.3 |
PE (x) | 19.3 | 18.5 | 15.8 | 12.8 | 10.6 |
P/B (x) | 2.8 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.9 |
EV/EBITDA (x) | 14.0 | 12.5 | 11.6 | 9.0 | 7.3 |
Dividend yield (%) | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 3.9 | 3.3 |
Net margin (%) | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 2.8 |
Net debt/(cash) to equity (%) | (8.1) | (25.7) | (23.1) | (25.2) | (25.4) |
Interest cover (x) | 151.4 | 62.7 | 72.6 | 89.4 | 107.8 |
ROE (%) | 14.5 | 14.8 | 14.5 | 16.3 | 17.4 |
Source: VSTECS, Bloomberg, UOB Kay Hian
T h u r s d a y , 14 November 2024
BUY
(Maintained)
Share Price | RM3.20 |
Target Price | RM5.02 |
Upside+56.9%
COMPANY DESCRIPTION
VSTECS Berhad, is the leading distributor of ICT products to consumers and enterprises in Malaysia. Founded in 1985, the Group distributes a wide range of ICT products to both consumer and enterprise and provides IT services in the form of pre-sales, integration, and post-sales in support of the brands represented.
STOCK DATA
GICS sector | ICT Distributor | |||
Bloomberg ticker: | VSTECS MK | |||
Shares issued (m): | 356.6 | |||
Market cap (RMm): | 1,141.0 | |||
Market cap (US$m): | 256.6 | |||
3-mth avg daily t'over (US$m): | 0.3 | |||
Price Performance (%) | ||||
52-week high/low | RM4.52/RM1.26 | |||
1mth | 3mth | 6mth | 1yr | YTD |
5.3 | (5.3) | (7.5) | 143.7 | 146.3 |
Major Shareholders | % | |||
VSTECS Holding Ltd | 45.6 | |||
Sengin Sdn Bhd | 12.2 | |||
Dasar Technologies Sdn Bhd | 8.6 | |||
FY24 NAV/Share (RM) | 1.41 | |||
FY24 Net Cash/Share (RM) | 0.33 |
PRICE CHART
(lcy) | VSTECS BHD | VSTECS BHD/FBMKLCI INDEX | (%) | ||||
5.00 | 350 | ||||||
4.00 | 310 | ||||||
270 | |||||||
3.00 | 230 | ||||||
190 | |||||||
2.00 | 150 | ||||||
110 | |||||||
1.00 | 70 | ||||||
20 | |||||||
15 | Volume (m) | ||||||
10 | |||||||
5 | |||||||
0 | |||||||
Nov 23 | Jan 24 | Mar 24 | May 24 | Jul 24 | Sep 24 |
Source: Bloomberg
ANALYST(S)
Ku Wei Xiang
+603 2147 1916 weixiang@uobkayhian.com
Desmond Chong
+603 2147 1980 desmondchong@uobkayhian.com
Refer to last page for important disclosures. | 1 |
R e g i o n a l M o r n i n g N o t e s
- 9M24 sales rose 9% yoy, driven by a strong rebound in both consumer and enterprise systems in 3Q24, effectively offsetting the sluggish market conditions in 1H24. Core net profit jumped 13% yoy in tandem with higher sales alongside increased net finance income and greater profit contributions from its associate, Isatec.
- Secured a series of key distributorships in 2024, charting a path for growth. In 2024, VSTECS secured a series of new distributorships, including key partnerships with Starlink, AWS, Google Gemini and more. These collaborations are set to play a pivotal role in accelerating Malaysia's digitalisation efforts, bringing cutting-edgetechnology and cloud solutions to businesses and consumers nationwide. With these strategic alliances, VSTECS is well-positionedto foster innovation, enhance connectivity, and contribute to the country's technological advancement, charting a path for prolonged multi-yeargrowth in the digital economy.
STOCK IMPACT
- New DC incentives: A strategic inflection point. The Malaysian government is currently restructuring its incentive packages for data centre (DC) investments to prioritise high-valueactivities that bring broader economic benefits. Treasury Secretary General Datuk Johan Mahmood Merican highlighted concerns that while DCs involve significant capex, they often do not create enough high-skilledjobs and can strain electricity and water resources. To address this, the government will introduce a new investment incentive framework by mid- 25, using a "scorecard" approach to assess projects based on factors like job creation, local business linkages, sustainability, and alignment with strategic economic sectors. These incentives will be backed by a RM1b strategic fund designed to cultivate local talent and promote high-valueactivities in the E&E and AI sectors, ensuring long-termeconomic benefits. We believe this could be an inflection point for VSTECS, as it will further accelerate its DC equipment and GPU server deals by multiple folds, growing from the current tens of millions of ringgit.
- Potential order from colocation DCs for IT equipment. This order has yet to be reflected in our valuation. VSTECS targets the colocation DCs market, which typically secures its IT equipment from distributors such as VSTECS. According to C_TEC and the US Chamber of Commerce, approximately 73% of initial DC capex is attributed to IT equipment. Based on our channel checks, the estimated cost of IT equipment per megawatt (MW) is RM40m-50m.With 200MW of colocation DCs currently under construction, this presents a total addressable market (TAM) of around RM10b. It is worth noting that VSTECS holds a market share of 50% in the enterprise systems distribution in Malaysia, indicating a significant opportunity in this blue-oceanmarket segment. Note that the majority of colocation DCs in Malaysia are still in the construction and mechanical and electrical (M&E) phase. VSTECS has already engaged in this phase by providing UPS systems and smart cooling systems. Typically, this phase takes 1-2years to complete before transitioning to the installation of IT equipment.
VALUATION/RECOMMENDATION
- Maintain BUY with an unchanged target price of RM5.02, based on 20.0x 2025F PE. Given the lack of local listed peers for valuation benchmarking, we use a 1.0x PEG ratio (compared with 2.0x PEG ratio which is the average peak PEG valuation of tech names during the 2021 tech run), reflecting a three-yearnet profit CAGR of 20% from 2023. The booming DC industry in Malaysia, reminiscent of the tech bull cycle in 2021, supports this valuation.
ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL, GOVERNANCE (ESG) UPDATES
- Environmental
- Electricity withdrawal from main grid reduced by 20% yoy in 2023.
- Solar power constituted 41% of total electricity consumed in 2023.
- 26% reduction in paper consumption.
- Social
- Maintaining a 50% male-female composition among total employees.
- The group recorded zero work fatalities over the past nine years.
- 100% local employees.
- Governance
- Zero confirmed corruption or harassments cases reported.
- Zero fines or penalties from regulatory authorities.
Refer to last page for important disclosures.
T h u r s d a y , 14 November 2024
KEY PRINCIPAL RELATIONSHIPS
Source: VSTECS
INDUSTRIES SERVED AND JOB SCOPE
Source: VSTECS
DC PRODUCTS AND SOLUTIONS
Source: VSTECS
2
R e g i o n a l M o r n i n g N o t e s
T h u r s d a y , 14 November 2024
PROFIT & LOSS | BALANCE SHEET | |||||||||
Year to 31 Dec (RMm) | 2023 | 2024F | 2025F | 2026F | Year to 31 Dec (RMm) | 2023 | 2024F | 2025F | 2026F | |
Net Turnover | 2,727.2 | 3,035.6 | 3,413.8 | 3,868.3 | Fixed Assets | 3.7 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 1.0 | |
EBITDA | 82.7 | 89.0 | 111.8 | 135.9 | Other LT Assets | 57.1 | 57.1 | 57.1 | 57.1 | |
Depreciation & Amortisation | (3.1) | (3.1) | (1.6) | (1.0) | Cash/ST Investment | 150.9 | 149.9 | 171.4 | 190.7 | |
EBIT | 79.6 | 92.2 | 113.4 | 136.9 | Other Current Assets | 600.3 | 673.4 | 760.2 | 865.9 | |
Associate Contributions | Total Assets | 812.0 | 882.0 | 989.7 | 1,114.6 | |||||
Net Interest Income/(Expense) | (1.3) | (1.3) | (1.3) | (1.3) | ST Debt | 2.5 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | |
Pre-tax Profit | 82.8 | 95.9 | 117.8 | 142.0 | Other Current Liabilities | 315.6 | 331.5 | 389.0 | 437.5 | |
Tax | (15.4) | (23.0) | (28.3) | (34.1) | LT Debt | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
Minorities | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | Other LT Liabilities | 4.1 | 9.1 | 14.6 | 20.9 | |
Net Profit | 67.4 | 72.9 | 89.5 | 107.9 | Shareholders' Equity | 456.4 | 503.8 | 548.6 | 618.7 | |
Net Profit (Adjusted) | 62.0 | 72.9 | 89.5 | 107.9 | Minority Interest | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
Total Liabilities & Equity | 812.0 | 882.0 | 989.7 | 1,114.6 |
CASH FLOW | KEY METRICS | |||||||||
Year to 31 Dec (RMm) | 2023 | 2024F | 2025F | 2026F | Year to 31 Dec (%) | 2023 | 2024F | 2025F | 2026F | |
Operating | 107.6 | 25.6 | 67.4 | 58.1 | Profitability | |||||
Pre-tax Profit | 82.8 | 95.9 | 117.8 | 142.0 | EBITDA Margin | 3.0 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 3.5 | |
Tax | (22.8) | (23.0) | (28.3) | (34.1) | Pre-tax Margin | 3.0 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 3.7 | |
Depreciation & Amortisation | 1.7 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 1.0 | Net Margin | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 2.8 | |
Working Capital Changes | 49.4 | (55.4) | (29.3) | (57.2) | ROA | 8.3 | 8.3 | 9.0 | 9.7 | |
Other Operating Cashflows | (1.8) | 8.1 | 7.2 | 7.4 | ROE | 14.8 | 14.5 | 16.3 | 17.4 | |
Investing | 0.3 | (1.0) | (1.0) | (1.0) | ||||||
Capex (Growth) | (3.0) | (1.0) | (1.0) | (1.0) | Growth | |||||
Investments | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | Turnover | (1.6) | 11.3 | 12.5 | 13.3 | |
Proceeds from Sale of Assets | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | EBITDA | 4.0 | 7.6 | 25.6 | 21.5 | |
Others | 3.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | Pre-tax Profit | 3.4 | 15.8 | 22.8 | 20.5 | |
Financing | (3.6) | (25.6) | (44.8) | (37.8) | Net Profit | 13.0 | 8.1 | 22.8 | 20.5 | |
Dividend Payments | (22.1) | (25.5) | (44.8) | (37.8) | Net Profit (Adjusted) | 4.5 | 17.5 | 22.8 | 20.5 | |
Issue of Shares | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | EPS | 4.5 | 17.5 | 22.8 | 20.5 | |
Proceeds from Borrowings | (0.8) | (1.3) | (1.3) | (1.3) | ||||||
Loan Repayment | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | Leverage | |||||
Others/Interest Paid | 0.6 | (0.1) | (0.1) | (0.1) | Debt to Total Capital | 0.3 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 3.0 | |
Net Cash Inflow (Outflow) | 104.3 | (1.0) | 21.6 | 19.2 | Debt to Equity | 0.0 | 6.6 | 6.1 | 5.4 | |
Beginning Cash & Cash Equivalent | 46.6 | 150.9 | 149.9 | 171.4 | Net Debt/(Cash) to Equity | (25.7) | (23.1) | (25.2) | (25.4) | |
Changes Due to Forex Impact | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | Interest Cover (x) | 62.7 | 72.6 | 89.4 | 107.8 | |
Ending Cash & Cash Equivalent | 150.9 | 149.9 | 171.4 | 190.7 |
Refer to last page for important disclosures. | 3 |
R e g i o n a l M o r n i n g N o t e s | T h u r s d a y , 14 November 2024 |
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Refer to last page for important disclosures. | 4 |
R e g i o n a l M o r n i n g N o t e s | T h u r s d a y , 14 November 2024 |
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Refer to last page for important disclosures. | 5 |