Black Rock Mining Mahenge Graphite Mine
Simply Better Graphite: Investor Update
Noosa Mining Conference
July 2024
Important notices
This presentation has been prepared by Black Rock Mining Limited (Black Rock or the Company) and has been approved by the Board of Black Rock.
The release, publication or distribution of this presentation in certain jurisdictions may be restricted by law and therefore persons in such jurisdictions into which this presentation is released, published or distributed should inform themselves about and observe such restrictions.
This presentation is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell, or solicitation to purchase, any securities. Such Offer can be made only through proper subscription documentation and only to investors meeting strict suitability requirements. Any failure to comply with these restrictions may constitute a violation of applicable securities laws. In providing this presentation Black Rock has not considered the financial position or needs of the recipient. Persons needing advice should consult their stockbroker, bank manager, solicitor, attorney, accountant or other independent financial and legal advisors.
Competent Person(s) Statement
The information in this report that relates to estimates of Mineral Resources and Ore Reserves has been extracted from the Company's ASX announcement released on 3 February 2022 titled "BKT Confirms 25% increase in Measured Resources." The Company confirms that it is not aware of any new information or data that materially affects the information included in the original market announcement, and that all material assumptions and technical parameters underpinning the estimates of Mineral Resources or Ore Reserves in the original market announcement continue to apply and have not materially changed.
Production Target
The information in this report that relates to a production target, or forecast financial information derived from a production target has been extracted from the Company's ASX announcement released on 10 October 2022 titled "Black Rock Completes FEED and eDFS Update". The Company confirms that all material assumptions underpinning the production target, or forecast financial information derived from the production target, in the original announcement continue to apply and have not materially changed.
Forward Looking Statements
Various statements in this presentation constitute statements relating to intentions, future acts and events. Such statements are generally classified as "forward looking statements" and involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other important factors that could cause those future acts, events and circumstances to differ materially from what is presented or implicitly portrayed herein. Words such as "anticipates", "expects", "intends", "plans", "believes", "seeks", "estimates" and similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements. Black Rock cautions shareholders and prospective shareholders not to place undue reliance on these forward looking statements, which reflect the view of Black Rock only as of the date of this presentation. The forward looking statements made in this presentation relate only to events as of the date on which the statements are made.
Black Rock at a glance
Premium graphite player
Developing the Mahenge graphite project in Tanzania:
- Tier 1 scale (2ndlargest reserve globally)
- Forecast first quartile costs due tohydro-dominated grid
- Very lowcarbon-footprint products (decarbonisation)
Backed by largest ex-China anode producer POSCO:
- Strategic Alliance: Black Rock major shareholder at 10.1%
- Cornerstone offtake partner (3 offtake agreements)1
- Providing up to US$50m in development funding1
- Exploring other opportunities to collaborate
All key Govt agreements and permits in place
Debt approvals in place
- US$153m in debt approvals with DBSA, IDC and CRDB2
- Loan documentation due to be completed near term
Substantial upside if Black Rock team can execute:
- Mahenge NPV10US$1.4bn (A$2.1bn)3
1Slide 21 provides more details of Black Rock's Strategic Alliance with POSCO.
2DBSA & IDC are both wholly-owned subsidiaries of the South African Govt. See ASX release 18 March 2024. 3Project metrics updated Oct 2022. NPV post-tax, post Govt 16% free carry. More detail on Slide 10.
Capital structure
ASX ticker | BKT | |||
Share price (9 July 2024) | $0.059 | |||
Shares on issue | 1,251.3m | |||
Options and performance rights | 71.8m | |||
Market capitalisation (undiluted) (@$0.059) | A$74m | |||
Cash4(31 Mar 2024) | A$2.9m | |||
Debt (31 Mar 2024) | Nil | |||
Major shareholders5 | ||||
Copulos Group | 10.9% | |||
POSCO Group | 10.1% | |||
$12 | $0.25 | |||
$10 | $0.20 | |||
$8 | ||||
M | $0.15 | |||
($A) $6 | ||||
$0.10 | ||||
$4 | ||||
$2 | $0.05 | |||
$0 | $0.00 | |||
9-Jul-22 | 9-Jan-23 | 9-Jul-23 | 9-Jan-24 | 9-Jul-24 |
Volume | Price |
4Excludes A$10m in new equity raised at 6.5c on 27 March 2024 which settled in early April 2024 35As per latest substantial interest notices
Black Rock team
Board of Directors
Richard Crookes, Non-exec Chairman: Geologist with over 30 years executive experience in the resources and finance industries; raised capital and financed a number of projects globally, including across Africa. Previous roles include Investment Director at Mining PE Fund EMR Capital, Executive Director in Macquarie's Metals & Energy Capital and Chief Geologist / Mining Manager at Ernest Henry Mining.
John de Vries, MD & CEO: Mining Engineer with over 40 years experience in mine development and operations; professional experience spans Africa, the Pacific, the former Soviet Union, North and South America and Australia. Previously General Manager Technical Services with St Barbara, integral in the 2014 turnaround; earlier operational management roles at BHP Nickel West, Orica Mining Services and Western Mining Corp.
Ian Murray, Non-exec Director: Finance Executive with over 20 years corporate experience in the publicly listed resources sector; led highly successful project developments, major acquisitions, company restructures and stock exchange listings. Previous roles include CEO of Gold Road Resources, CEO and CFO of DRDGold Ltd, Director of Rand Refinery Ltd and GoldMoney.com, and senior positions at KPMG, PwC and Bioclones.
Management
Steuart McIntyre, GM Corporate Development: Mining analyst with over 15 years experience. Previous roles include sell-side mining analyst for Royal Bank of Canada and Blue Ocean Equities and associate at Cutfield Freeman, a mining-focused corporate finance boutique in London. Steuart has degrees in Civil Engineering and Commerce from the University of Sydney and a diploma of corporate finance from the London Business School.
Daniel Pantany, GM Engineering & Technical: Civil Engineer with over 25 years experience in mining project development in Africa and Australia across a broad range of project delivery roles including EPCM, EP, and lump sum EPC contracts. His most recent position was with CPC Engineering including secondment as Project Engineering Manager for Syrah's Balama project. Black Rock's Study Manager for Mahenge since 2018.
Paul Sims, CFO: A highly credentialled finance resources executive with over 25 years of executive experience in the resources industry, spanning both commercial and financial roles at BHP, Western Mining Corp, Minara Resources and Karara Mining. Mr Sims has extensive experience in debt finance, project management and cost control. He has a Bachelor of Business degree from Curtin University and is a Fellow of CPA Australia.
Rae Wyatt,GM People, Culture & Sustainability: Experienced HR professional with 15 years experience in the resources industry, specialising in project development and stakeholder engagement with communities. Ms Wyatt has most recently held senior roles at Clean TeQ (Sunrise Metals), Gold Road and Macmahons. She has a degree in commerce from Curtin University in HR and Industrial Relations and is a graduate of AICD.
4
Graphite in batteries
Li-ion batteries typically contain ~7-10x more graphite than lithium.
LFP batteries expected to be 50% of global passenger EV sales within 2 years*
Cathode (+)
Anode (-)
Graphite is the dominant anode material, regardless of battery chemistry
LFP | NMC 111 | NMC 532 | NMC 811 | NCA |
17% | 15% | 16% | 16% | 11% |
29% | ||||
43% | ||||
68% | 73% | |||
83% | 29% |
24%
27% | 17% | 8% | |
14% | |||
8% | |||
95% | 95% | 95% | 95% | 95% |
5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | ||||||||||
Silicon / other | Graphite | Other | Cobalt | Manganese | Nickel | Lithium | ||||||||
Source: Pallinghurst-Traxys battery analysis. %s represent the proportions of cathode and anode in each battery respectively. NCA batteries contain 2% aluminium (not shown) *Bloomberg New Energy Finance Report, 12 June 2024: https://about.bnef.com/blog/electric-vehicle-sales-headed-for-record-year-but-growth-slowdown-puts-climate-targets-at-risk-according-to-bloombergnef-report/
5
More natural | Growing importance of natural graphite in batteries | |
graphite in | 100% | |
batteries
75%
41%
65%
50%
The use of natural graphite in batteries has potential to grow from 30% of the anode to 50% by 2030
25% | 50% | ||||||||||
30% | |||||||||||
0% | |||||||||||
2023 | 2030 | ||||||||||
Natural graphite | Synthetic graphite | Silicon | LTO | Other | |||||||
In late Sept 2023, UBS published a research report on natural graphite1:
- Natural graphite looks to be preferred inlow-costlower-carbon profile LFP batteries
- Natural graphite market share in the anode could increase from 30% today to 50% by 2030
- Forecasting a 6x growth in natural graphite demand by 2030 to 6.3mt
This forecast would require ~5mt of new natural graphite supply by 2030 or around 14 new mines
the size of Syrah's Balama mine (based on a nameplate capacity of ~350ktpa)2.
Given the significant barriers to entry for new natural graphite supply, Black Rock believes this scenario would likely lead to substantial supply deficits and much higher graphite prices.
Sources: Public releases, UBS, Benchmark Mineral Intelligence Q4 CY22, Black Rock Mining 1Australian Financial Review, 1 October 2023, Graphite to Surge:UBS6
2Syrah Resources (ASX:SYR): Q3 2023 Quarterly Activities Report, 17 October 2023
Healthy margins at spot prices
Current graphite prices support healthy potential margins at Mahenge at forecast AISC of US$518/t
Graphite pricing by Mahenge product (last 12 months)
US$/t 2,000
1,750
1,500
1,250
1,000
750
500
9/07/23 | 9/10/23 | 9/01/24 | 9/04/24 | 9/07/24 | |||||||
-195 | +195 | +895 | +595 | +3295 | |||||||
Split in Mahenge basket: | 32% | 9% | 36% | 18% | 5% |
Source: RefWin, Asian Metals, ICC Sino, Black Rock Mining
Consolidated Mahenge basket pricing (last 12 months)
US$/t 1,200
1,100
1,000
900
800 | ||||
9/07/23 | 9/10/23 | 9/01/24 | 9/04/24 | 9/07/24 |
Mahenge Basket at 95% conc grade
Mahenge Basket at 97% conc grade (estimated)
Source: RefWin, Asian Metals, ICC Sino, Black Rock Mining
Black Rock sensitivity: 10% increase in basket price = 20% increase in unlevered NPV 7
Diversified revenue stream
Mahenge basket price has been relatively steady as weaker fines price has been offset by stronger large flake price
Flake graphite prices over last 4 years (Asian Metals)
US$/t
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
The fines price (-194) appears to have finally
400found a floor while larger flake prices have continuned to improve since August 2023 (+195, +895)
200 | |||||||||||||||||
8/07/2020 | 8/07/2021 | 8/07/2022 | 8/07/2023 | 8/07/2024 | |||||||||||||
-194 Price EXW China US$/t | +195 Price EXW China US$/t | +895 Price EXW China US$/t | |||||||||||||||
Source: Asian Metals
8
Fines price expected to recover
Fastmarkets forecasting a ~50% increase in the -194 China price over the next ~18 months to ~US$680/t
Graphite Flake, 94% C, -100 Mesh, FOB Qingdao, China
Source: Fastmarkets BRM Lithium & Graphite Short-term Forecast Tracker, 11 June 2024
Based on Benchmark Mineral Intelligence data, Black Rock estimates >50% of global natural graphite mine supply is breakeven/loss making at current prices, which is clearly not sustainable
In addition, there is growing evidence of premium prices for ex China fines due to new US and EU restrictions and US 25% tariffs on graphite sourced from China
9
A snapshot of the Mahenge Graphite Project
Simple open pit mine development with outstanding forecast returns1
US$1.4bn | 36% | |
NPV10 nompost tax, post 16% FC | Post-tax, ungeared IRR | |
US$231m | 347ktpa | |
Module 1 capex + power line* | Steady production (4 x 1Mtpa) | |
US$1,709/t | US$518/t | |
Basket graphite price*** | All-In-Sustaining-Cost** | |
89ktpa
Module 1 production* (1mtpa)
95 - 99%+ TGC purity
59% +80 mesh, 41% -80
Concentrate product
26 years
Initial operating life
1See Black Rock ASX release dated 10 October 2022, Black Rock completes FEED and eDFS Update. All technical parameters, including in the estimation of Mineral Resources | |
or Ore Reserves, underpinning the estimates continue to apply and have not materially changed. The estimated Ore Reserves and Mineral Resources underpinning the | |
production and financial forecasts were prepared by Competent Persons in accordance with the requirements in Appendix 5A (JORC Code). | |
*Includes US$182m for Module 1 capex + US$33m for power line + US$16m for early works & other costs (not included in the eDFS Update). Power costs expected to be | 10 |
~US8c/kWh less a meaningful rebate to recoup the costs of the power line. Forecast Capex has been classified as a Class 2 estimate with accuracy of ±10% as defined by AACE. |
**Average over first 10 years. ***Expert Consensus is the average forecast from Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, Fastmarkets and Wood Mackenzie over the first 10 years.