3Q
2023
November 2023
This presentation includes references to certain non-GAAP measures. We believe these non-GAAP measures provide useful information to both management and investors. These non-GAAP measures should not be considered in isolation or as a substitute for measures of performance prepared in accordance with U.S. GAAP and may be different from non-GAAP measures used by other companies. In addition, these non-GAAP measures are not based on any comprehensive set of accounting rules or principles. Non-GAAP measures have limitations in that they do not reflect all of the amounts associated with our results of operations as determined in accordance with U.S. GAAP. These non-GAAP financial measures should only be used to evaluate our results of operations in conjunction with the most comparable U.S. GAAP financial measures.
The 2023 financial guidance contained in this presentation reflects management's current assumptions regarding numerous evolving factors that are difficult to accurately predict. [Reconciliations of forward-lookingnon-GAAP measures to the relevant forward-looking GAAP measures are not being provided, as we do not currently have sufficient data to accurately estimate the variables and individual adjustments for such guidance and reconciliations. The 2023 financial guidance includes forward-looking statements.
Contents.
- Macro Scenario
- Key Financial Results
- City National Bank of Florida
Key Calls for the US, Peruvian & Chilean Economy
- Global risks increased after the terrorist attack over Israel. Global growth for 2024 is revised down by the IMF.
- The US economy is still in good shape. As a result, the Fed rose the FFR to 5.25%-5.50%. Market expectations points to the end of the cycle.
- In Peru, the economic activity has been hitted by the political crisis and natural disasters. Prices are going down but as quickly as expected. The Central Bank started an easing cycle.
- In Chile, the economic activity has been in line with our projections of a decrease of 0.5% in the GDP for 2023. Inflation has dropped quicker than expected. The Central Bank cut the MRP to 9.00% and stop its international reserve increased program.
- The CLP has been a lot of pressure the last 3 months due to external factors.
US GDP grew 4.9% in 3Q23 and unemployment rate keeps at minimum historical levels. Florida figures remains fairly positive.
US & Florida. GDP Growth by Quarter | US & Florida. Unemployment Rate | |
(annualized QoQ, %) | (%) |
Source: BEA, BLS, Bci Research
Prices are falling gradually. Fed increased the FFR to 5.25%- 5.50% and then sustained that very contractive level.
US. Total & Core CPI | US. Fed Funds Rate | |
(yoy, %) | (%) |
Source: BEA, BLS, Federal Reserve, Bci Research
US yield curve increased in 3Q23 after better economic conditions
US. Yield Curve 2Q23 vs 3Q23 | US. Real Broad Effective Exchange Rate | |
(%) | (index 2010=100) |
Source: Bloomberg, Federal Reserve, Bci Research
In Peru, economic activity is still weak. Prices started to drop and the Central Bank is lowering its MPR
Peru. Total CPI & Monetary Policy Rate | ||
Peru. GDP Growth by Quarter and Forecast | (%) | |
(yoy, %) |
Peru. Yield Curve 2Q23 vs 3Q23
(%)
Source: BCRP, Bci Research
In Chile, economic activity is adjusting.
Labour figures continued to deteriorate.
Chile. Quarterly GDP Growth and Forecast | Chile. Employed versus Unemployed | |
(YoY, %) | (Thousands of workers) |
Source: INE, Central Bank of Chile, Bci Research
Inflation would finish at 4.3% yoy at the end of the year. Central Bank started an easing cycle.
Chile. Inflation by Components and Forecast | Chile. Monetary Policy Rate & Projections | |
(yoy, %) | (yoy, %) |
Source: INE, Central Bank of Chile, Bci Research
The Chilean Peso has been under pressure the last three months due to external factors
Cumulative performance of selected group of | ||
Chile. Yield Curve 4Q22 vs 1Q23 | ||
currencies against US Dollar | ||
(%) | ||
(Jan22:0%) | ||
Source: Bloomberg, Bci Research